Expert Political Judgment
How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Philip E. Tetlock
Explore the qualities of good judgment in predicting future events with this expert analysis of why many experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Looking at arguments about the complexity of the world and the success of different thinking styles, the author provides a clear and well-researched guide on how to evaluate expert opinion. Whether you are an academic or a corporation seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making, this book is an invaluable resource.
Дата публикации
2006-08-20T00:00:00.000Z
2006-08-20T00:00:00.000Z
впервые опубликовано в 2005
Рейтинг Goodreads
3.99
ISBN
9780691128719
Рекомендации
2
Рекомендации
2018-07-05T21:46:55.000Z
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? by @PTetlock -- Is the future knowable, and by whom? All pundits and commentators should publish their prediction track records, yet don't. What to pay attention to and what to ignore. – источник2022-05-11T05:35:06.000Z
@pmarca @sriramk @aarthir @GoodTimeShowAS @pmarca book #1 on predictive markets and why listening to experts in times of dramatic change might not be prudent.
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition by ... via @amazon – источник